It's hard to deny it anymore. The European Union, at least as such, is, if not a failed experiment, then badly botched attempt. One after another, third-rate economies tarted up to be second-rate and bolted onto first-rate economies are having to be bailed out by those said first-raters. The taxpayers of the robust economies are getting understandably tired of doing this, especially when the taxpayers of the faltering economies have no interest in economizing or changing the ways that put them in dire straits in the first place. How can such a union persist, particularly when it's not actually even fixed together as a single political entity? I no longer really think it can.
Years ago the suggestion of a "two-speed Europe" was uttered sotto voco. I didn't care for the idea. Everyone should follow the same rules! Everyone should have the same standards! They all arrive together! I think that was the general feeling in the EU as well. It seems to me now that was unrealistic, and maybe those suggestions should have been said a bit louder and discussed more adamantly. Don't get me wrong. I'm not talking about an a la carte union, which the British want and I find unutterably self-serving. It has all the charm, maturity, and respect for your roomies as claiming the right to come over on Friday night, find a bed mate, raid the fridge, and half-heartedly dump some pocket change in the coffee jar before you bugger off again past the sinkful of dirty dishes. No, not the Anglo-Saxon conception of the EU. There would be two sets of rules, depending on the speed of your economy; a core set, and a starter set. The problem is membership in the EU has always been toss 'em into the deep end if they can pump their arms and legs; don't worry, they'll swim. Sure.
It struck me sometime in the 2000s that the experiment was running a little hot. The EU was admitting new members with all the alacrity and discretion of a beer hall manager. The more the merrier, hurry hurry hurry before all the kegs are empty! The criteria for joining were shoddy and economies that had emerged from communism a decade earlier were being ushered in if they had something like a pulse. Well, it wasn't hard to have a blazing economy if you were being stuffed to the gills by corporations eager to take advantage of the fact your workers were still dazzled by the prospect of making twenty bucks a day. But that didn't make it a robust economy, as we're seeing. Even back then, I was having misgivings. It seemed to me then, and even more so now, that admission to the European Union, particularly the eurozone, should have been golden carrot dangled before prospective members for at least a generation. Something to work for. Tighten their economies up, show that they can be fiscally responsible, demonstrate their staying power, and train the citizenry for the responsibilities admission entails and the obligations to the other members.
I'm tempted to think that the only way to save the EU is for it to nova. Explode, and the core shed the dead weight members. Let them continue to trade and keep free movement of labour, but divorce the sick economies. Force them to rebuild and work toward the stable currency the euro really represents when it's not forced to back economies like Greece, where tax evasion is a gold medal Olympic sport. And if they can't be bothered to shape up and reapply, that works too. But I'd make them pay the freight for forex if they wanted to trade with the core EU. Come to that, I'd make the UK do that for sticking to the pound. If Germany can fold the mark, the Brits can certainly fold the pound, and if they won't, I don't see why the core EU should have to enrich bankers for the dubious privilege of paying for British goods in pounds.
I don't know what's going to happen, but I've reached the point where I no longer expect to see the EU—or more specifically, the eurozone—emerge with its current membership. In fact, I'm at the point now where I'm not sure it would be a good thing if it did. Maybe some of these economies need a timeout. Some of their taxpayers certainly do need to sit in the corner with the dunce cap on, that's for damn sure.
Showing posts with label euro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label euro. Show all posts
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
Yes to Europe means No to Tony
As of this morning, the Czech Supreme Court has cleared the way for Czech president Vaclav Klaus to sign the Lisbon Treaty, completing its ratification. Hopefully he will do so forthwith.
Of course, this leads to the immediate question: who will be the first president of the new Europe?
Personally, I feel that the president should come from among those countries that have demonstrated themselves to be committed to the project of continental integration. Tony Blair should not be in the running, as he hails from a nation that is not among those ranks.
Imagine instead the UK were integrating with not the EU, but the US, and the British were saying, "Oh, yes, we'll happily take full, unfettered access to your markets and offer you the same. But we won't accept to be tried in your courts or by your laws; and we don't want your Bill of Rights or certain articles of the US Constitution to apply to us; and we expect even people coming from the US to present their passports when they come here; and we won't agree to use the dollar. You see, while we're happy to move freely in your country and live, work, and learn as we please, we don't want you beastly people interfering in our lovely country. Oh, and please make sure your next president is one of us." What do you think the US would say? I think once they stopped laughing they'd be hard-pressed not to push the Button. It's gallingly insulting. Or maybe "de Gaulle-ingly" puts it better.
I guess it's fine for the British to cut the best deal they can, and play it the way they feel it, if the rest of Europe's willing to accommodate that. But there's no way the British, with all these tepid opt-outs and refusals to commit, should expect or even hope that one of their number should have the top job in an association they don't even fully participate in on so many levels. Frankly, I think there should be a tacit, or even explicit, disqualification for citizens of members that remain outside the eurozone, Schengen Agreement, and other crucial hallmarks of a continental home, from the presidency of the European Union.
N.B. Later, same day — Vaclav Klaus signed the treaty a couple of hours ago. Finally. Well, it took him far too long, but at least once the writing was on the wall, he put the writing on the treaty, too, and quick-smart. Alka Seltzer should work so fast. Congrats to the EU; the Lisbon Treaty is ratified at last!
N.B. Later, same day — Vaclav Klaus signed the treaty a couple of hours ago. Finally. Well, it took him far too long, but at least once the writing was on the wall, he put the writing on the treaty, too, and quick-smart. Alka Seltzer should work so fast. Congrats to the EU; the Lisbon Treaty is ratified at last!
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Trade pact with the EU?
I'm not seriously expecting this to come to pass, but I have to say, it's the most surprising news I've seen reported about Canada's future economic prospects in a long time. This was reported this morning in The Globe and Mail.
LONDON — Canadian and European officials say they plan to begin negotiating a massive agreement to integrate Canada's economy with the 27 nations of the European Union, with preliminary talks to be launched at an Oct. 17 summit in Montreal three days after the federal election.
Trade Minister Michael Fortier and his staff have been engaged for the past two months with EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson and the representatives of European governments in an effort to begin what a senior EU official involved in the talks described in an interview yesterday as “deep economic integration negotiations.”
If successful, Canada would be the first developed nation to have open trade relations with the EU, which has completely open borders between its members but imposes steep trade and investment barriers on outsiders.
The proposed pact would far exceed the scope of older agreements such as NAFTA by encompassing not only unrestricted trade in goods, services and investment and the removal of tariffs, but also the free movement of skilled people and an open market in government services and procurement – which would require that Canadian governments allow European companies to bid as equals on government contracts for both goods and services and end the favouring of local or national providers of public-sector services.
Previous efforts to reach a trade pact with Europe have failed, most recently in 2005 with the collapse of the proposed Trade and Investment Enhancement Agreement.
But with the breakdown of World Trade Organization talks in July, European officials have become much more interested in opening a bilateral trade and economic integration deal with North America.
A pact with the United States would be politically impossible in Europe, senior European Commission officials said.
A newly completed study of the proposed deal, which European officials said Prime Minister Stephen Harper decided not to release until after the election, concludes that the pact would increase bilateral trade and investment by at least $40-billion a year, mainly in trade in services.
Ottawa officials say they have overcome what they see as their biggest hurdle: the resistance of provincial governments to an agreement that would force them to allow European corporations to provide their government services, if their bids are the lowest.
Although Ottawa's current list of foreign-policy priorities does not include European issues, European and Canadian officials say Mr. Harper has been heavily engaged with the proposed trade pact.
The two governments have completed a detailed study of the proposed agreement that will be unveiled shortly after the election, should the Conservatives win.
Both Ottawa and Brussels have had staff work on a draft text for a deal they had hoped would be introduced at a Canada-EU summit, to be attended by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and Mr. Harper in Montreal on Oct. 17. France currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU, and Mr. Sarkozy has said that he hopes to make economic integration with Canada one of his accomplishments.
Last Wednesday, a top Ottawa trade official wrote to Mr. Mandelson to propose “the launch of comprehensive negotiations toward a closer economic partnership at the Canada-EU Leaders Summit, to be held on October 17,” and stressed that all 13 provincial and territorial governments had agreed to the proposed pact at a July 18 meeting in Quebec City.
Because of the election, Mr. Harper appears to have decided not to unveil a full text of the proposed agreement, but instead to use the summit to inaugurate the trade talks with the launch of a “scoping exercise” that will quickly set the goals of the pact and lead to formal “comprehensive trade and investment negotiations” to begin in “early 2009,” according to communications between senior Canadian and European officials examined by The Globe and Mail.
Proponents, including all of Canada's major business-lobby organizations, are in favour of the deal because it would open Canadian exporters to a market of 500 million people and allow the world's largest pool of investment capital into Canadian companies without restrictions.
Because Canada's fractious provinces have killed attempts at a trade pact in the past, Europe is demanding that Canada accept a more far-reaching agreement than Canada and Europe had attempted before, in an effort to win a stronger commitment, EU officials said.
Major “deal-breaker” conditions, officials said, include full agreement by all 10 provinces, especially on the issue of European companies providing government services, and what are known as “geographic indicators,” which forbid products such as champagne and feta cheese to be produced under those names outside their nations of origin. Controversially for Canada, this may soon be extended so only English producers can use the name cheddar on their cheese.
However, both sides agree that there is far more political will to negotiate a major deal, on both sides than there ever has been.
“I am far more optimistic this time than I've ever been in the past. … I feel very confident that we will be able to launch something on Oct. 17 that will give us a better chance than we've ever had before to get a full deal in place,” said Roy MacLaren, head of the Canada-Europe Round Table, a pro-trade business organization that has been heavily involved in the negotiations.
As a trade minister in the Jean Chrétien government and later as a diplomat, Mr. MacLaren was involved in several previous attempts at a Canada-EU pact.
Canada-EU trade proposal rivals scope of NAFTA
Plan to lift barriers for goods and labour to be discussed at summit after election
September 18, 2008 at 2:00 AM EDTLONDON — Canadian and European officials say they plan to begin negotiating a massive agreement to integrate Canada's economy with the 27 nations of the European Union, with preliminary talks to be launched at an Oct. 17 summit in Montreal three days after the federal election.
Trade Minister Michael Fortier and his staff have been engaged for the past two months with EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson and the representatives of European governments in an effort to begin what a senior EU official involved in the talks described in an interview yesterday as “deep economic integration negotiations.”
If successful, Canada would be the first developed nation to have open trade relations with the EU, which has completely open borders between its members but imposes steep trade and investment barriers on outsiders.
The proposed pact would far exceed the scope of older agreements such as NAFTA by encompassing not only unrestricted trade in goods, services and investment and the removal of tariffs, but also the free movement of skilled people and an open market in government services and procurement – which would require that Canadian governments allow European companies to bid as equals on government contracts for both goods and services and end the favouring of local or national providers of public-sector services.
Previous efforts to reach a trade pact with Europe have failed, most recently in 2005 with the collapse of the proposed Trade and Investment Enhancement Agreement.
But with the breakdown of World Trade Organization talks in July, European officials have become much more interested in opening a bilateral trade and economic integration deal with North America.
A pact with the United States would be politically impossible in Europe, senior European Commission officials said.
A newly completed study of the proposed deal, which European officials said Prime Minister Stephen Harper decided not to release until after the election, concludes that the pact would increase bilateral trade and investment by at least $40-billion a year, mainly in trade in services.
Ottawa officials say they have overcome what they see as their biggest hurdle: the resistance of provincial governments to an agreement that would force them to allow European corporations to provide their government services, if their bids are the lowest.
Although Ottawa's current list of foreign-policy priorities does not include European issues, European and Canadian officials say Mr. Harper has been heavily engaged with the proposed trade pact.
The two governments have completed a detailed study of the proposed agreement that will be unveiled shortly after the election, should the Conservatives win.
Both Ottawa and Brussels have had staff work on a draft text for a deal they had hoped would be introduced at a Canada-EU summit, to be attended by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and Mr. Harper in Montreal on Oct. 17. France currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU, and Mr. Sarkozy has said that he hopes to make economic integration with Canada one of his accomplishments.
Last Wednesday, a top Ottawa trade official wrote to Mr. Mandelson to propose “the launch of comprehensive negotiations toward a closer economic partnership at the Canada-EU Leaders Summit, to be held on October 17,” and stressed that all 13 provincial and territorial governments had agreed to the proposed pact at a July 18 meeting in Quebec City.
Because of the election, Mr. Harper appears to have decided not to unveil a full text of the proposed agreement, but instead to use the summit to inaugurate the trade talks with the launch of a “scoping exercise” that will quickly set the goals of the pact and lead to formal “comprehensive trade and investment negotiations” to begin in “early 2009,” according to communications between senior Canadian and European officials examined by The Globe and Mail.
Proponents, including all of Canada's major business-lobby organizations, are in favour of the deal because it would open Canadian exporters to a market of 500 million people and allow the world's largest pool of investment capital into Canadian companies without restrictions.
Because Canada's fractious provinces have killed attempts at a trade pact in the past, Europe is demanding that Canada accept a more far-reaching agreement than Canada and Europe had attempted before, in an effort to win a stronger commitment, EU officials said.
Major “deal-breaker” conditions, officials said, include full agreement by all 10 provinces, especially on the issue of European companies providing government services, and what are known as “geographic indicators,” which forbid products such as champagne and feta cheese to be produced under those names outside their nations of origin. Controversially for Canada, this may soon be extended so only English producers can use the name cheddar on their cheese.
However, both sides agree that there is far more political will to negotiate a major deal, on both sides than there ever has been.
“I am far more optimistic this time than I've ever been in the past. … I feel very confident that we will be able to launch something on Oct. 17 that will give us a better chance than we've ever had before to get a full deal in place,” said Roy MacLaren, head of the Canada-Europe Round Table, a pro-trade business organization that has been heavily involved in the negotiations.
As a trade minister in the Jean Chrétien government and later as a diplomat, Mr. MacLaren was involved in several previous attempts at a Canada-EU pact.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Bang. Zoom.
Today is epochal. I don't know if most people will see it that way, but I think today, Sept. 20, 2007, is going to go down in financial and social history. This very day, we have seen some startling indicators concerning the health of the US dollar and, by extension, the economy it represents.
Today, the Canadian dollar hit parity with the US dollar. The last time that was true was November, 1976, when I was still shedding milk teeth. This is partly due to rising commodity prices, which favour our dollar since we export commodities (particularly oil), but also an indicator of the tight monetary policy the Bank of Canada has followed for many years finally paying off. It's also due to the housing melt down in the States, and other factors undermining the US dollar.
Today, the euro hit $1.40 US for the first time since its creation in 1999 and implementation in 2002. Many people were saying that this was a psychological barrier the euro had to hurdle to be taken seriously as a potential reserve currency. It would seem that the euro has arrived. If this is seen to be the case, this will put even more downward pressure on the US dollar.
Today, for the first time, Saudi Arabia has declined to lower interest rates in lockstep with the US Federal Reserve. There's speculation that this is the first step to the Saudis unpegging their currency from the US dollar, and that may ultimately signify they're preparing to abandon their support for the policy of accepting only the US dollar in payment for oil. It's Saudi Arabia who has driven that policy in OPEC for over 30 years, and what has effectively backed the US dollar ever since. If this changes and oil becomes available on the open market in a basket of currencies, the days of US dollar hegemony will truly be over. What's worse, the US currency frozen in reserve banks around the world may become liquid again, and the value of the US dollar could truly plunge if that happens.
On the surface, it looks like just a couple of little incidents... but when you look at the big picture, it was a sobering day for the US economy, and the prognosis isn't a happy one. Today may turn out to be one of those days that the world changed while we were all too busy to notice.
Today, the Canadian dollar hit parity with the US dollar. The last time that was true was November, 1976, when I was still shedding milk teeth. This is partly due to rising commodity prices, which favour our dollar since we export commodities (particularly oil), but also an indicator of the tight monetary policy the Bank of Canada has followed for many years finally paying off. It's also due to the housing melt down in the States, and other factors undermining the US dollar.
Today, the euro hit $1.40 US for the first time since its creation in 1999 and implementation in 2002. Many people were saying that this was a psychological barrier the euro had to hurdle to be taken seriously as a potential reserve currency. It would seem that the euro has arrived. If this is seen to be the case, this will put even more downward pressure on the US dollar.
Today, for the first time, Saudi Arabia has declined to lower interest rates in lockstep with the US Federal Reserve. There's speculation that this is the first step to the Saudis unpegging their currency from the US dollar, and that may ultimately signify they're preparing to abandon their support for the policy of accepting only the US dollar in payment for oil. It's Saudi Arabia who has driven that policy in OPEC for over 30 years, and what has effectively backed the US dollar ever since. If this changes and oil becomes available on the open market in a basket of currencies, the days of US dollar hegemony will truly be over. What's worse, the US currency frozen in reserve banks around the world may become liquid again, and the value of the US dollar could truly plunge if that happens.
On the surface, it looks like just a couple of little incidents... but when you look at the big picture, it was a sobering day for the US economy, and the prognosis isn't a happy one. Today may turn out to be one of those days that the world changed while we were all too busy to notice.
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