Red magic

Generally speaking, I'm a Liberal supporter. I've voted Liberal in most (although not all) elections, and by and large, they're the party that best reflects my own views on social progressiveness and fiscal pragmatism.

Even so, I have to confess I'm perplexed by their recent rise in the polls since they hung on by the skin of their teeth in last month's confidence vote. At the moment, they're well ahead of the Tories in nearly all parts of the country. I'm not sure how to account for this. I'm not being smug, though, when I suggest it really could come down to Stephen Harper and how the Tories are perceived.

First of all, there's the lingering sense that Harper's some kind of throwback to Bible Bill Aberhart. I believe that most Canadians, regardless of whether they support or oppose gay marriage, would really rather leave that up to individual people to decide, rather than have a decision forced upon them. Canadians probably aren't the most libertarian bunch in the world but I still get the feeling there's a hesitancy among us to brick people up with legislated norms. That seems too American. That's the kind of thing "they" do... define what's "American" and then fight to put everyone who doesn't agree on the other side of a legislated line. This is a country that endures a separatist party in Parliament, after all.

Secondly, there's this regional aspect to it. More and more, it looks like a grudge match between Alberta and everyone else. The rest of us seem to bend and sway with the breezes, but not them. Having staked their claim, they're bound and determined to have their way. If they don't, they blame Ontario. They blame Quebec. They blame everyone else. But everyone else seems capable of electing other parties. In my voting lifetime, Ontario has elected Conservative, Liberal, and NDP governments. It has helped elect Conservative and Liberal federal governments. When was the last time Alberta had a non-Tory provincial government, or didn't largely vote Tory or Reform federally? Their attitudes are carved in stone, but the rest of us, we're the problem. The idea has been creeping in, particularly since the Reform Party (Alliance, whatever) hijacked the Tories, that the Conservatives are the Bloc Alberta, trying to recruit outside Calgary. As long as it's perceived that way, support even in the rest of the West, particularly B.C., is going to be soft. The Tories really need to find a leader who sounds like he or she is speaking for Canada and addressing the issues of Alberta, instead of the other way around. Alberta already has a provincial Tory party. The CPC is supposed to be the federal one.

I think the third problem for the Tories is the whole Grewal thing. The Tories have been making the Sponsorship Scandal their bread and butter for a long time now. Sleaze, corruption, moral bankruptcy! Then along comes Grewal with his claims that the Grits offered him a cabinet position if he'd cross the floor. Shocking! Scandalous! Till we found out that not only had he gone to them on a fishing expedition and been told it wasn't that simple, but that he fabricated evidence to support his charges. Kickbacks are bad enough, but fraud and blackmail aren't just whistling Dixie either. So now Canadians are left with a choice between a sleazy Liberal government they know can run the country and balance the books, and a potential sleazy Tory government of unknown ability, along with a lot of disquieting talk of banning this, disallowing that, etc., etc., etc. Given the choice, it's not hard to see why they resign themselves to their fallback position.

I don't know what's going to happen in the long run. Canadians have to be a little fed up with the Grits. But they don't trust the NDP with their credit cards and the Tories seem too much like they want everyone to read the Bible and go to bed early. So I think we're looking at low voter turn-out, and likely the Liberals holding on, unless the Gomery Inquiry really digs up a body or something (literally). I know I admitted I generally support the Liberals, and I don't like the idea of kickbacks, but I can't be the only Canadian who, when they heard the money involved was $1.9 million, secretly thought, "What, that's it?" Yes, I know there's a principle involved, but still... you wouldn't quit your job these days if that's all you won in the lottery.